zoid wrote:

AlekH wrote:

JeffB wrote:I've been amused by the consistent chatter that we Chicagoans will have to "pay" for the mild winter with a foot of snow in June or some other atrocity. The wacky warm weather is disturbing on some level, but how does the possibility of a frost in late May, which always exists regardless of the winter and spring seasons, mean payback or regret for the gloriously (but disturbingly) warn non-winter we had? I refuse to feel guilty. The ramps are coming up, I have mosquito bites from last weekend, and I expect to be eating asparagus in a few weeks, cherries a few weeks hence. We're basically past winter's end and it didn't happen.

There is no karma in weather, but we certainly could pay for it. A light frost is no big deal but a hard freeze (sub-28), which is still climatologically possible, would be rather disasterous from an agricultural prospective since many plants region wide are a month plus ahead of schedule, leaving them very vulnerable.

So do I still need to wait till after Mother's day to do any planting?

I'm not sure how anyone can answer this if they don't know what the weather will be.
It seems like a safe strategy is to wait, unless you don't mind replanting in the event that there is a hard freeze.

Darren72 wrote:I'm not sure how anyone can answer this if they don't know what the weather will be.
It seems like a safe strategy is to wait, unless you don't mind replanting in the event that there is a hard freeze.

When it comes to planting it's always best to follow your local climate zone, my post in reply to the pay for it comment was largely directed to concerns over fruiting tress (cherry, apple, etc), where there is real possiblity for severe damage given the early blossoms.

...right, but a hard freeze is not in the cards for the forecasted future. By the time the current 10-day forecast plays out, we will be close to the date on the calendar when new growth would be coming out anyway. So what's the difference? In fact, aren't we better off if the plants are well into the growing season if and when this completely hypothetical and increasingly very unlikely hard freeze happens in April?

Looking at historic averages, the second week of April seems to be a real turning point, with a bump up as daily highs reach around 60 and lows are well above hard freeze territory. If I were a gambler, I wouldn't put money on a hard freeze based on what we've seen short, medium and long term.

Edit: by the way, my comments were directed more toward established fruit trees, not new plantings. I can see taking a conservative approach to the latter. Why not? But getting back to early blooms, for which the lot has been cast: By the last week of April last year, after a wet, cool, but not freezing early spring, everything was in bloom or past that in SW Michigan, for example. That was considered a little late according to the farm reports from last year (I have no personal knowledge of what's normal or not). I guess what I'm saying is, yes, it is quite strange that this might all be happening 3-4 weeks early this year but the always possible frost disaster seems unlikely at this point and if it does still happen it probably would have happened anyway, even if we didn't have 80 degree days in March and no real winter.

NWS note: Don't Let the Early Season Warmth Fool You…The Threat for Freezing Temperatures Remains Very High
In case this link does not work very long:

The extremely and unusually warm weather conditions over the past week have created an abnormally early start to the spring "green up" of plants and trees across the area. However, in spite of how warm things have been up to this point, it is important to remember that we are just past the middle of March. With this in mind, it is nearly certain that we are not finished with freezing temperatures across the area. Typically, the average last spring freeze is not observed until the middle to end of April across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. In order to gauge the risk of experiencing freezing temperatures into the first portion of the spring season, consider the tables below. These tables display the probabilities of exceedance for the date of the last spring freeze (32 degrees and colder), as well as the date of the last spring season hard freeze (28 degrees and colder) at both Chicago and Rockford. To interpret these tables consider, for example, the 70 percentile for Chicago in the table below. The date listed is April 12th for the date of the last freeze. This means that of all the years in the history for Chicago dating back to the late 1800s 70% of the years experienced the final spring freeze on a date later than April 12th. So, statistically speaking there is a 70% chance that freezing temperatures will still be observed at least once after April 12th. Notice the dates at Rockford are later, indicating significant threats for freezing temperatures through late April to early May.

Chicago , IL
Probability of Exceedance Date of Last Spring Freeze (32° or colder) Date of Last Spring Hard Freeze (28° or colder)
Earliest March 16th March 4th
90% April 5th March 24th
70% April 12th March 31st
50% April 18th April 7th
30% April 24th April 11th
10% May 7th April 20th
Latest May 25th May 10th

Chicago data are based on the station at O'Hare, which is on the west side of the airport. Note that there is a 50% probability of a hard freeze after April 7 with probabilities dropping off pretty fast in the following two weeks.

In my part of Lincoln Square blooming and growth is more typical of early May than late March. I have planted onion sets, peas and some lettuce. This year I did not use plastic sheeting to warm the soil and speed up germination as I do not want much faster than normal germination, which would leave the small plants vulnerable to cold. These plants can tolerate a somewhat hard freeze providing the leaves are close to the surface of the soil where night-time energy radiation helps warm the tops. Meanwhile the roots are really growing.

In my part of Lincoln Square blooming and growth is more typical of early May than late March. I have planted onion sets, peas and some lettuce.

I planted my garlic and shallots last fall, and they are already 6"+ tall; just planted some purple Peruvian potatoes today.

Virtually everything in the perennial/herb garden has sprouted, including the lilies, echinachea, and peonies, and I now have a ton of self-seeded dill popping up all over. Pretty cool. I'm not going to go nuts and put tomatoes or chiles out before mid-May, though.

Hi- Actually everything was late last year. I believe the peaches were two weeks late last season, and the year before they were earlier than normal. Red Haven peaches are the most common variety
in SW Michigan. They usually ripen around August 1st, and they did not ripen until the middle of August last year.

I get nervous when it gets this warm this early, because then the fruit trees bloom early, and there is always a chance that we can have a major frost while they are in bloom, and lose part of the crop.
Hope this helps, Nancy

ekreider wrote:NWS note: Don't Let the Early Season Warmth Fool You…The Threat for Freezing Temperatures Remains Very High...

This article makes an important statistical mistake. The probability that there is a hard freeze today is pretty much zero because it is 8am and it is already in the mid-60s degrees. We know that temperatures are unlikely to fall 30 degrees in a day. Similarly, the probability of a hard freeze tomorrow is smaller than the probability of a hard freeze on randomly chosen March 23 over the past 100 years. We know this because it is warm today (and because we have a fairly reliable forecast that the low tomorrow will be around 50). One can continue this logic: the probability that we will have a freeze next week is less than the probability that a randomly chosen final week of March over the past 100 years had a hard freeze because the weather next week and the weather this week are correlated with one another.

The point is not that we won't have a hard freeze this year.

The point is simply that the probability of a hard freeze this year is less than the historical averages of freezes during similar periods in the past. The historical averages are most likely to be incorrect estimates of the true probability in the short term (i.e. tomorrow) and more likely to be correct the further out you go. So the probability of a freezing temperature after May 7 may indeed be close to 10%. But the probability of a freeze after April 12 is certainly less than 70%.

What does this mean for the weekend gardener? Not all that much, honestly. If it is cheap and easy to replant if there is a frost, go ahead and plant stuff now. The worst that happens is that you replant again later. No need to even think about tomatoes or peppers, though, since they really don't hit their growth spurt until the weather is consistently warmer. i.e. you probably won't get tomatoes in June if you plant now.

Darren72 wrote:If it is cheap and easy to replant if there is a frost, go ahead and plant stuff now. The worst that happens is that you replant again later. No need to even think about tomatoes or peppers, though, since they really don't hit their growth spurt until the weather is consistently warmer. i.e. you probably won't get tomatoes in June if you plant now.

Exactly. It's also important to remember that many plants can't really develop fruit until the days get longer, and no matter how warm it gets the Solstice isn't coming any sooner this year.

Basil, eggplant and peppers can be severely damaged by temperatures in the forties. Tomatoes do not like temperatures below forty (growth can stop and blossoms are likely to drop or fail to set fruit). Determinate tomatoes tend to have more damage from growth stoppage for whatever reason than do indeterminate varieties. Young tomato plants are more sensitive to low temperatures than older plants, so do not extrapolate fall behavior toward chilling to spring.

Darren72, you summed the point up well. The chart in the linked article states that, historically, we have a 70% chance that the last hard freeze of the year will fall on or before April 11. The ten day forecasts have us above freezing with 60 degree highs into the first days of April. Misleading and kind of stupid in light of the observed and forecast weather this winter to draw conclusions from 100-year averages as if we are all talking about this in October (before observations of this particular winter) instead of late March. Another hard freeze is still possible (always is), but rapidly dwindling in likelihood.

Another hard freeze is still possible (always is), but rapidly dwindling in likelihood.

Just noted via the Weather Channel that the forecast low for Evanston on Sunday, 3/25, is 38 degrees. Inland temperatures should be appreciably cooler.

Just sayin'.

This is trouble if you like Michigan apples/cherries

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... ze%20watch

Hi- Bad news to report. I just talked to my sister that has the fruit farm in Michigan, and it got down to 19 there a few nights ago, and things do not look good. She said that her apricots and plums got wiped out. Due to the unseasonably warm March, everything bloomed a month early, and there were already some baby apricots and plums on the trees when she got hit with the frost this week, and they all died.

She also lost most of her apples. She will have maybe 20% of a peach crop, and maybe the same in cherries. The strawberry growers are still okay, because the strawberries got watered. She is not sure yet exactly how many peaches she will have this year, but she said that the crop will be awful. Half of our farm is peaches, and if we don't have peaches, nobody does, and so it sounds like the crop is going to be dismal. She also told me a few weeks ago, that 95% of the juice grapes got wiped out in an earlier frost.

It looks like the only fruit that will be plentiful this summer is strawberries, melons, and maybe raspberries and blueberries.

At least it is supposed to warm up there this week, and tonight is supposed to be the last night they have frost for a while. Hope this helps, Nancy

I guess that I should chime in and say that I was very disappointed at the offerings at GCM this week.
I picked up a good amount of morels, but they were pricey ($50/lb as opposed to Irv and Selly's advertised $40). No ramps to be seen. A good lot of spinach and early greens. Green garlic seemed to be in short supply. The bakeries seemed to be holding down the fort pretty well.

Hi- I am sure that there was some asparagus at GCM today. I did not get to the Wilmette market until 12:15 today, and there were two people there selling asparagus. One was selling asparagus and bedding plants, and the other grower was selling asparagus, and a bunch of other stuff, most of which I am sure he got at Water street market. This particular grower used to come to Evanston, and he is no longer there. I assume he got kicked out for not selling enough home grown stuff.

This time of year, all you will find besides bedding plants are mushrooms, asparagus, green onions, and maybe some spinach, lettuce, and mesclan. There might be a few asian greens that I have missed too, but it is going to be too early for cabbage, broccoli, peas and most root vegetables. Hope this helps, Nancy

NFriday wrote:Hi- Bad news to report. I just talked to my sister that has the fruit farm in Michigan, and it got down to 19 there a few nights ago, and things do not look good. She said that her apricots and plums got wiped out. Due to the unseasonably warm March, everything bloomed a month early, and there were already some baby apricots and plums on the trees when she got hit with the frost this week, and they all died.

She also lost most of her apples. She will have maybe 20% of a peach crop, and maybe the same in cherries. The strawberry growers are still okay, because the strawberries got watered. She is not sure yet exactly how many peaches she will have this year, but she said that the crop will be awful. Half of our farm is peaches, and if we don't have peaches, nobody does, and so it sounds like the crop is going to be dismal. She also told me a few weeks ago, that 95% of the juice grapes got wiped out in an earlier frost.

It looks like the only fruit that will be plentiful this summer is strawberries, melons, and maybe raspberries and blueberries.

At least it is supposed to warm up there this week, and tonight is supposed to be the last night they have frost for a while. Hope this helps, Nancy

Sorry to hear that, Nancy. I love Michigan peaches and cherries.

JeffB wrote:Looking at historic averages, the second week of April seems to be a real turning point, with a bump up as daily highs reach around 60 and lows are well above hard freeze territory. If I were a gambler, I wouldn't put money on a hard freeze based on what we've seen short, medium and long term.

Edit: by the way, my comments were directed more toward established fruit trees, not new plantings. I can see taking a conservative approach to the latter. Why not? But getting back to early blooms, for which the lot has been cast: By the last week of April last year, after a wet, cool, but not freezing early spring, everything was in bloom or past that in SW Michigan, for example. That was considered a little late according to the farm reports from last year (I have no personal knowledge of what's normal or not). I guess what I'm saying is, yes, it is quite strange that this might all be happening 3-4 weeks early this year but the always possible frost disaster seems unlikely at this point and if it does still happen it probably would have happened anyway, even if we didn't have 80 degree days in March and no real winter.

JeffB wrote:I've been amused by the consistent chatter that we Chicagoans will have to "pay" for the mild winter with a foot of snow in June or some other atrocity. The wacky warm weather is disturbing on some level, but how does the possibility of a frost in late May, which always exists regardless of the winter and spring seasons, mean payback or regret for the gloriously (but disturbingly) warn non-winter we had? I refuse to feel guilty. The ramps are coming up, I have mosquito bites from last weekend, and I expect to be eating asparagus in a few weeks, cherries a few weeks hence. We're basically past winter's end and it didn't happen.

Famous last words...

I've been following the Michigan fruit situation closely over the past few weeks, and the reason why those crops are especially vulnerable is that if they bloom and bud ahead of schedule as they did during the Summer of March, they're vulnerable to killing by later freezes. In parts of Michigan, the last freeze date is usually mid-May, so that means these trees have to get through April and part of May with their buds intact even though low temps in those months is not atypical. What's the likelihood? Low, as it turns out. After at least two freezes in early April, most farmers' fruit trees are wiped out. Concord grapes are out -- I heard that Welch's is scrambling. (I wrote this a couple weeks ago; I think the news is even bleaker now.) I just talked to some people with MSU as well as some farmers -- tart and sweet cherries are done, zippo, in most of Michigan. Apple and peach trees are in rough shape, if not done. Anyway, people should prepare themselves for either really high prices on a small crop at market, or eat blueberries, melons and raspberries. I hear strawberries will be out in 2-3 weeks.

aschie30 wrote:

JeffB wrote:Looking at historic averages, the second week of April seems to be a real turning point, with a bump up as daily highs reach around 60 and lows are well above hard freeze territory. If I were a gambler, I wouldn't put money on a hard freeze based on what we've seen short, medium and long term.

Edit: by the way, my comments were directed more toward established fruit trees, not new plantings. I can see taking a conservative approach to the latter. Why not? But getting back to early blooms, for which the lot has been cast: By the last week of April last year, after a wet, cool, but not freezing early spring, everything was in bloom or past that in SW Michigan, for example. That was considered a little late according to the farm reports from last year (I have no personal knowledge of what's normal or not). I guess what I'm saying is, yes, it is quite strange that this might all be happening 3-4 weeks early this year but the always possible frost disaster seems unlikely at this point and if it does still happen it probably would have happened anyway, even if we didn't have 80 degree days in March and no real winter.

JeffB wrote:I've been amused by the consistent chatter that we Chicagoans will have to "pay" for the mild winter with a foot of snow in June or some other atrocity. The wacky warm weather is disturbing on some level, but how does the possibility of a frost in late May, which always exists regardless of the winter and spring seasons, mean payback or regret for the gloriously (but disturbingly) warn non-winter we had? I refuse to feel guilty. The ramps are coming up, I have mosquito bites from last weekend, and I expect to be eating asparagus in a few weeks, cherries a few weeks hence. We're basically past winter's end and it didn't happen.

Famous last words...

I've been following the Michigan fruit situation closely over the past few weeks, and the reason why those crops are especially vulnerable is that if they bloom and bud ahead of schedule as they did during the Summer of March, they're vulnerable to killing by later freezes. In parts of Michigan, the last freeze date is usually mid-May, so that means these trees have to get through April and part of May with their buds intact even though low temps in those months is not atypical. What's the likelihood? Low, as it turns out. After at least two freezes in early April, most farmers' fruit trees are wiped out. Concord grapes are out -- I heard that Welch's is scrambling. (I wrote this a couple weeks ago; I think the news is even bleaker now.) I just talked to some people with MSU as well as some farmers -- tart and sweet cherries are done, zippo, in most of Michigan. Apple and peach trees are in rough shape, if not done. Anyway, people should prepare themselves for either really high prices on a small crop at market, or eat blueberries, melons and raspberries. I hear strawberries will be out in 2-3 weeks.

Thanks for the unfortunate update, I suspected this would happen...blooming a month plus early is always risky.

My back yard sour cherry tree seems OK. I don't know if I'll have a good crop, though, because last year I had a lot of cherry fly worm. I sprayed back before the cherries appeared, I think I might have to spray again, before they ripen. This stuff I have is just oils, so I don't know how well it works compared to something pyrethrin-based, or even stronger. But it does look like I could eat it as a salad dressing...

http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/regional_r ... ay_8_2012/

Hi- Thanks for the latest Michigan State University Extension report. They really did not say how large the peach crop is this summer. I've heard that it ranges from 1% up to 30%. The peach crop is larger up near South Haven and north of there, than it is in Berrien county. I noticed that the next fruit meeting the cooperative extension is putting on, is going to be at my sister's farm this Monday. Her peach crop is by far the largest on any fruit on her farm, but it is still awful. She has maybe 25% of a peach crop. Thanks, Nancy

Her peach crop is by far the largest on any fruit on her farm, but it is still awful. She has maybe 25% of a peach crop.

The plus side: this year's crop of Michigan stone fruit is going to command astronomical prices, especially apricots. Lord knows the demand is there!

Hi- There is a limit to how much people will pay though. I don't think that they will pay much more than double. The apricot crop is supposed to be extremely small. There might be a few apricots around by South Haven or north of there, but as far as I know the apricot crop in Berrien county, is pretty much wiped out. My sister had 100% of an apricot crop, until April 27th, when she already had baby apricots on the trees, and her whole crop got wiped out that night.

One of the farmers I spoke to today, told me that he has 1% of a peach crop, and I don't think he has any cherries or apples this year, and his blueberry crop got some damage, but did not get wiped out. At least he will have plenty of strawberries in about two weeks, and he brings lots of tomatoes and corn and other veggies.

My cherries, which are plentiful in number, are starting to look like they did get damaged with the frost. Some are now just not growing more, or they are turning a different color. It may be that this is normal, and I'm only noticing it because I'm looking and the tree is creating more and more cherries each year (it's still a very young tree).

In addition to stone fruit, apples are pretty much wiped out too.

leek, what color did your cherries turn? Dark brown?

aschie30 wrote:In addition to stone fruit, apples are pretty much wiped out too.

leek, what color did your cherries turn? Dark brown?

So far, not totally, but I suspect that's where they are headed. Purplish, reddish, brownish, but not all over.

Hi- I just talked to my sister that has the fruit farm in SW Michigan. She didn't sound quite as depressed, as she did when I spoke to her 5 weeks ago. She told me that she has picked all her sweet cherry crop for the year. She sold her whole crop in three days, and she picked the first of her cherries on May 29, which is unheard of. Not only did she have a small crop of sweets, but the birds loved them too. To top everything off, it rained lots when the cherries were almost ready to pick, and they all cracked. She decided to take a chance at selling them at her fruit stand. She was worried that people would get turned off by the cracks, and she only charged $3 a pint. She had no problems selling them.

She is actually going to shake some sour cherries this week, and the canners are paying $1 a pound, while last year they paid 20 cents. She does not have a large crop of sours. Midwest cherries in general are extremely hard to find. My sister was hoping to buy some more midwest cherries to sell st her fruit stand, and she can't locate any. She says that everybody has a small crop, and she will have to sell Western cherries for the first time.
.
Some of her peach orchards have a very small crop, but some of her orchards have 75% of a crop, but those are the orchards where the trees are either just starting to mature, or are old, and so she only expects 20% of a peach crop total this summer. She is not doing any upicking or wholesaling of her fruit this summer. All her fruit is being sold only at her farm market.

She does have a small crop of some variates of apples. She is going to have some golden delicious, gala and a few honeycrisp. She has an extremely small crop of the rest of her apple varieties. She might press some cider this fall, but she is not sure. It sounds like cherries and apples are going to be particularly hard to find at the farmer's market this summer. My sister normally sells frozen pie cherries at her fruit stand, and she said that Coloma frozen foods, which normally supplies her with bags of frozen and pitted sours, has none available this year. I don't know what places like Mama Hoosier's are going to do for cherry pie filling this summer. Michigan is the largest grower of sour cherries by far.

Hope this helps, Nancy

The EFMvendor I frequent for Michigan cherries, Stover's, was selling them for seven bucks a pint on Saturday. Not a quart - a PINT. Commodity trading at its finest!

I harvested my cherries this past weekend (I have one backyard tree - a dwarf Montmorency). Luckily I didn't have worms this year, but the crop was smaller than I think it should have been. There were a lot of fruits that clearly just never got going all the way. I have maybe another handful or two left on the tree that weren't quite ripe enough. I had enough to make one pie, that was it.

So the early season continues: I got my plants in the ground about a week and a half prior to Memorial Day... but the hardening off period just before that had too much sun and I lost a few plants. So some of my stuff is seedlings and some is commercial nursery (including a huge pot of Best Boy from Costco to give me a boost on the harvest time)... but one of my bell pepper seedlings has a ping-pong ball-sized fruit already!

I have a 2"-long jalapeno too, but that's on a nursery plant. Flowers are all over the rest of my peppers and tomatoes, and I'm picking my second meal's worth of snow peas tonight for dinner.